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Türkiye seen ramping up gas production 8-fold by 2050

Türkiye’s natural gas production is envisaged to reach 13 billion cubic meters (bcm) annually by 2050, enough to power Istanbul and Ankara for 12 months. This would position it between Western markets and major energy suppliers in the Middle East and Russia.

The increase will mainly stem from Türkiye’s gas output in the Black Sea. It has been developing the 710 bcm natural gas field, which was gradually discovered in August 2020.

In April 2023, it started pumping gas from the Sakarya field into the national grid through a pipeline linked to an onshore processing facility. Türkiye will meet approximately 30% of its annual gas need once the Black Sea reaches total capacity.

This year, production from the Sakarya gas field is estimated to reach 1.6 billion cubic meters, with the field’s first-phase maximum production set to reach 3.5 billion cubic meters, according to information compiled from the latest report prepared by the Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF).

With the completion of the development of the second phase, production is estimated to reach 11 billion cubic meters per year.

Emphasizing the importance of developments in the Sakarya field, the GECF report said, “With the expansion of the Sakarya field and recent discoveries in the South Akcakoca Sub-Basin, Türkiye is on track to reach 20 billion cubic meters of production by 2040.”

However, it said that without major discoveries, it is likely to fall to 13 billion cubic meters by 2050.

Heavily dependent on imports for its energy needs, Türkiye has ramped up its hydrocarbon explorations in the Black Sea and the Eastern Mediterranean over the years.

Energy and Natural Resources Alparslan Bayraktar said this Wednesday that Türkiye would carry out three critical hydrocarbon explorations in the Black Sea this year, signaling potential new energy discoveries within 2024.

Regional hub

With its pipeline connection to the rest of Europe and its reloading facilities at three of its regasification terminals, Türkiye has taken a step closer to becoming a regional center.

Russia and Türkiye have been discussing the establishment of an international gas hub in Türkiye since 2022, and Russian gas has played a significant role in this initiative.

The report noted that Türkiye imported 54 billion cubic meters of natural gas in 2022, 72% of which was purchased through pipelines.

The report highlighted the country’s diversity of natural gas sources, including imports via pipeline from Russia, Iran and Azerbaijan and five liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminals with a total annual capacity of 27 million tons.

The report claimed that net natural gas imports will reach 55 billion cubic meters annually by 2050.

“Türkiye experienced a huge development in its natural gas investment in 2022. The upstream gas investment increased by $1.6 billion to $2.3 billion in 2022, driven mainly by the first phase of the Sakarya project in the Black Sea,” it said.

“Over the long term, Türkiye is expected to reach a gas production of 13 bcm at an upstream capital investment of $8.7 billion.”

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