The United States administration is growingly concerned over a potential Israeli incursion of neighboring Lebanon amid Tel Aviv’s ongoing war on Gaza, according to CNN.
American administration and intelligence officials believe the ground incursion could come in late spring or early summer.
The potential move is contingent on diplomatic efforts failing to push pro-Iran Hezbollah back from the northern border with Israel, according to senior officials familiar with the intelligence.
While a final decision from Israel is pending, CNN reported that the Biden administration is sufficiently alarmed that the prospect of an incursion has made its way into intelligence briefings for senior officials.
The assumption is that an Israeli military operation may occur in the coming months, not necessarily imminently in the next few weeks but possibly later this spring.
Months of daily cross-border strikes by both Israel and Hezbollah have displaced tens of thousands of Lebanese and Israeli residents. Israel has employed artillery, jets and drones, while Hezbollah has used its arsenal of rockets and missiles.
Amid ongoing discussions for a pause in the Gaza conflict, the Biden administration is leading parallel talks with Israeli and Lebanese officials. If successful, these discussions could result in creating a buffer zone inside southern Lebanon, potentially postponing an Israeli incursion.
Some within the Israeli government view the threat of an incursion as a negotiating tactic, while others perceive it as an impending military necessity. There’s a growing faction in favor of an incursion, with potential consequences deemed a “major escalation.”
Recent Israeli airstrikes, extending deeper into Lebanon, have raised concerns of an expansive air campaign reaching populated areas and potentially evolving into a ground component. The U.S. intelligence community has been sounding alarms about the situation.
Israel’s top general, Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi, visited the northern border, emphasizing the need to push back Hezbollah and create a strong barrier, stating that Hezbollah “must pay a heavy price” for its actions since Oct. 7.
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