For any player other than Novak Djokovic, a subpar Australian Open at 36 might have prompted pundits to start drafting his tennis obituary, but the Serb is no ordinary player.
While Djokovic missed out on winning a 25th major at Melbourne Park last month, those same pundits have learned over the last 15 years that counting out Djokovic is a risky bet.
Last year, Djokovic single-handedly carried the torch for the “Big Three” after Roger Federer’s retirement and during Rafa Nadal’s prolonged absence, battling through an injury to claim the Australian, French and U.S. Open titles.
Although he suffered a defeat to Carlos Alcaraz at Wimbledon and his third loss in four meetings with Jannik Sinner in Melbourne last month, these were seen as cracks in his once seemingly invincible veneer. Djokovic, however, was quick to dismiss any notion of a terminal decline.
“I still have high hopes for the Grand Slams, the Olympics and whatever tournaments I’ll play,” Djokovic said after his first loss at Melbourne Park in six years.
“It’s not the feeling I’m used to. It has been incredibly satisfying to start most of my seasons with a Grand Slam win, and I’ve never lost in the semis or finals of the Australian Open.
“So this time, it’s a bit different, but it is what it is. This tournament hasn’t been up to my standard or criteria or the level I’d normally play or expect myself to play, but it doesn’t necessarily mean it’s the beginning of the end.”
Djokovic is scheduled to return in the Masters Tournament at Indian Wells next month, where he will again face early twentysomethings like Alcaraz, Sinner and Holger Rune.
Although talk of a power shift may be premature, former player and sports psychology consultant Jeff Greenwald said fans were witnessing the rise of a new generation.
“Part of the magic needed at the highest level of the game, in any sport, and perhaps even more in an individual sport like tennis, is the invincibility factor, enjoyed by all the greats at one point in their careers,” Greenwald told Reuters.
“But as the new generation gathers confidence and experience, this illusive gap narrows.
“Alcaraz, Sinner and Rune have already proven they can beat the King of Grand Slams, while Father Time continues to descend and increasingly become an obvious liability.”
Deep digger
Djokovic showed at last year’s ATP Finals that he is far from being a spent force as he outclassed the young guns en route to the title. However, Greenwald believes he may need to dig deeper to beat them in the future.
“But if motivation is the quality to hold the next-gen off a little longer, he’ll be able to find it to win a few more Grand Slams,” Greenwald, the author of “The Best Tennis of Your Life,” added.
“In fact, it may be the final ‘chip’ he needs to rise to the occasion. But the window of time needed to add to his all-time best record is definitely narrowing fast.”
Florida-based Patrick Cohn, who teaches psychological techniques to athletes, believes Djokovic’s powers are not fading.
“I don’t see it as a decline in Djokovic’s game, but rather Sinner and Alcaraz are raising the level of theirs,” said Cohn, who has worked with top tennis and NFL players, NASCAR drivers, as well as golfers on the PGA Tour.
“They know they can compete with anyone on tour. I think Djokovic will use this Australian Open defeat as fuel to try and improve his game and not as a confidence buster.”
Djokovic remains world No. 1, but twice major champion Alcaraz is hot on his heels, and Sinner rose to a career-high third after backing up his Australian Open triumph with success in Rotterdam.
Other talented players, including Daniil Medvedev and Alexander Zverev, have shown similar threats in the past but have largely struggled in their attempts to see off the most successful triumvirate in men’s tennis.
Greenwald believes Sinner and Alcaraz represent a new breed of young talent with power, adaptability and, most critically, a distinct lack of fear when facing Djokovic.
“These players seem to have absorbed a variety of strengths of the ‘Big Three’ and are clearly showing us that not even the all-time great will intimidate them,” he added.
“They now believe they can win, and this mindset will be Djokovic’s greatest threat in the next one or two years.”
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