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Global oil demand to rise with resurgent Chinese demand: IEA

The International Energy Agency (IEA) on Wednesday revised up its global oil demand estimate by 100,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2023, with the impact of “a resurgent China.”

The global oil demand is set to rise by 2.03 million barrels per day (bpd) this year to 101.9 million bpd, the IEA said in its monthly oil market report.

The global oil demand growth opened the year with a whimper but is projected to end it with a bang, according to the report.

The rebounding jet fuel use and a resurgent China will see an overall 3.2 million bpd throughout the year — the largest relative in-year increase since 2010 — with oil use surging to 103.2 million bpd in the second half of the year, it added.

“Real-time indicators for Chinese mobility mostly stabilised after January’s remarkable bounce, led by air traffic with domestic flights now well above pre-pandemic levels.”

The oil demand of OECD countries will increase by 1.62 million bpd, lead the demand growth with 55.65 million bpd in 2023, while the demand in non-OECD nations will reach 46.36 million bpd.

Leaping 830,000 bpd month-on-month as the US and Canada rebounded strongly from winter storms and other outages, the global oil supply rose to 100.8 million bpd in February.

The IEA’s monthly oil market report shows that the total oil supply from OPEC+ rose by 180,000 bpd, while producers outside the bloc, that is in non-OPEC+, delivered gains of 650,000 bpd, dominated by the US and Canada.

“Russia, despite sanctions, led the OPEC+ increase as it continued to effectively re-route crude oil and products to Asia, Africa, the Middle East and elsewhere,” the agency said, recalling Moscow’s plans to turn down the taps by 500,000 bpd purportedly preferring not to sell to countries that comply with G7 price caps.

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