As talks to end the Ukraine war approach, Donald Trump has pledged a swift resolution, but his negotiating tactics – despite his reputation as the author of “The Art of the Deal” – may have already weakened his leverage.
Trump, who took office on Jan. 20, separately discussed the war Wednesday with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and told U.S. officials to begin talks on ending the nearly three-year war.
The phone calls came shortly after Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told Ukraine’s military allies in Brussels that a return to Ukraine’s pre-2014 borders – before Russia annexed Crimea – was unrealistic and that the U.S. does not see NATO membership for Kyiv as part of a solution.
He said U.S. troops would not be part of any security presence in Ukraine.
Michael McFaul, former U.S. Ambassador to Russia under President Barack Obama’s administration from 2012 to 2014 questioned the Trump administration’s strategy towards Russia and Ukraine ahead of impending negotiations.
“Why is the Trump administration giving Putin gifts – Ukrainian land and no NATO membership for Ukraine – before negotiations even begin?” McFaul asked on social media site X.
“I’ve negotiated with the Russians. You never give up anything to them for free.”
Russia occupies around a fifth of Ukraine and has demanded Kyiv cede territory and become permanently neutral under any peace deal. Ukraine demands Russia withdraw from captured land and wants NATO membership or equivalent security guarantees to prevent Moscow from attacking again.
Putin has said repeatedly that Russia is open to talks to end the conflict but that it would nevertheless achieve its goals in Ukraine of Moscow securing the country’s “demilitarization” and neutrality.
While Trump administration officials had signaled for some time that they would not support all of Ukraine’s goals, remarks by Hegseth and Trump jolted European allies.
“No NATO membership, no boots on the ground? Sounds like abandoning Ukraine,” former Lithuania Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis posted on X in response to Hegseth’s comments, which come ahead of the Munich Security Conference for political and military leaders later this week.
“Delegates are flying to Munich not to negotiate, but to deliver Zelenskyy the bad news.”
When asked later on Wednesday if Hegseth’s remarks had taken away any U.S. leverage, Trump told reporters: “I’m backing Ukraine.”
‘Concession to reality’
Stephen Wertheim, senior fellow at Carnegie Endowment, described Hegseth’s comments as a “concession to reality.”
“Hegseth’s remark does not imply any U.S. willingness to recognize occupied Ukrainian territory as legally Russian,” he said, adding that ruling out NATO membership “signals to Russia that a realistic settlement may be achievable.”
Since the war began in February 2022, Trump’s predecessor President Joe Biden – along with European allies – stood firm in demanding Russia withdraw and held out the possibility of eventual NATO membership. The U.S. and Europe have given Ukraine tens of billions of dollars in military aid.
Russia also has been diplomatically isolated at the United Nations, where three-quarters of the 193-member General Assembly repeatedly voted to denounce Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine and demand it withdraw its troops.
The Kremlin said Wednesday Putin and Trump had agreed to meet, and Putin had invited Trump to visit Moscow. Such a trip would be a major boost for the Russian president, who faces an International Criminal Court arrest warrant over his actions in Ukraine.
Brett Bruen, a former foreign policy adviser in the Obama administration, likened Trump’s agreement to meet Putin to him granting two high-profile summits in his first term in office to North Korean leader Kim Jong Un to try to curb Pyongyang’s nuclear program.
Kim pressed ahead with nuclear weapons development anyway. “This is the kind of stuff you should get concessions for,” he said. “You demand that the Kremlin not only free more Americans but cede territory in Ukraine.”
Minerals for security
Trump’s calls and Hegseth’s remarks coincided with a visit to Kyiv by U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent who said a minerals deal between Kyiv and Washington would provide Ukraine with a post-war “security shield.”
Zelenskyy said he was ready to do a deal to open mineral resources to U.S. investment.
Trump signaled Wednesday a minerals deal would provide security for U.S. funding for Ukraine, saying: “I told Biden, I said: ‘You ought to be asking for either a loan or some kind of a security, like their oil and gas or something for the money.'”
John Herbst, U.S. ambassador to Ukraine between 2003-2006 under President George W. Bush’s administration, said that the U.S. had surrendered some leverage with Russia, but that Bessent’s visit to Kyiv was a positive signal.
“Trump is talking about exchanging American weapons for the Ukrainians minerals. So this is a vehicle under Trump’s logic for sending weapons to Ukraine, ” Herbst said. “That’s a big deal and very positive.”
Still, a quick deal on uneven terms would be a dangerous precedent.
British lawmaker and former foreign secretary James Cleverly said that starting a negotiation by setting out what one side should give up was “not a strong move.”
“Giving the impression that invasion pays off is not a strong move. Regimes are watching closely. Let’s send the message that violence and aggression don’t win out. I stand with Ukraine,” he posted on X.
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