Two-time European champions France are poised to take on already-eliminated Poland at Borussia Dortmund’s Westfalenstadion in Tuesday’s final group stage match of Euro 2024.
Didier Deschamps’ side currently sits second in Group D, trailing the Netherlands based on goals scored.
Meanwhile, their Polish counterparts have already been knocked out of the competition, finishing last in the group and surely feeling disappointed about their early exit.
France have yet to showcase their top form in Germany, with a narrow 1-0 win against Austria and a goalless draw against the Netherlands last Friday raising doubts about their potential to win Euro 2024.
Under Didier Deschamps, Les Bleus have managed four points from two games, but their performance has been under scrutiny.
The draw against the Netherlands marked France’s 12th goalless draw in Euros and World Cups since 1992, the highest among all national teams during this period.
Criticism of Deschamps’ tactics has grown, especially regarding his utilization of the team’s abundant talent.
Notably, captain and star forward Kylian Mbappe missed the Netherlands game due to a broken nose sustained against Austria.
Despite France not performing as well as they would have hoped, there are still positive aspects from its first two games to build on, especially the promising performances of Theo Hernandez, Kylian Mbappe, and N’Golo Kante.
In terms of their recent form, France secured a 1-0 victory over Austria in their opening group-stage match and played to a goalless draw against the Netherlands in their second game.
They are also unbeaten in their last five matches and have won 14 of their last 20 fixtures.
If France avoid defeat against Poland or if Austria fail to beat the Netherlands, they will secure a top-two finish and advance to the round of 16.
A win against Poland would see France top the group, but if both France and the Netherlands win or draw, their final group positions will be determined by goal difference, goals scored, disciplinary points, and European Qualifier rankings, where France hold a higher position.
On the other hand, Poland have finished fourth in Group D after losing their first two games against the Netherlands and Austria.
Despite the Eagles’ potential to finish level on points with Austria, they cannot overtake them due to Austria’s superior head-to-head record, highlighted by their 3-1 victory on Friday, which takes precedence over overall goal difference.
Manager Michal Probierz, who took charge of the national team in September 2023, deserves some credit.
Despite suffering his first defeat at Euro 2024, he has overseen a period of largely positive results, winning six out of his 10 games.
However, the absence of record top scorer and appearance holder Robert Lewandowski, who was an unused substitute against the Netherlands due to a thigh problem, limited Poland’s attacking prowess.
Poland’s early exit from the competition is disappointing but follows a trend of underwhelming performances at major tournaments.
Since 1986, they have only reached the quarterfinals of the Euros or the World Cup once, during the 2016 European Championship in France.
Additionally, of the last five Euros Poland has qualified for, they have exited at the group stage four times.
Despite their recent setbacks, Probierz’s side had an eight-game unbeaten streak prior to their last two losses, with six wins during that period.
Despite missing the match against the Netherlands on Friday due to a broken nose sustained against Austria, Kylian Mbappe is expected to return to the starting XI.
The collision with Kevin Danso’s shoulder led to Mbappe’s injury, prompting manager Deschamps to take a cautious approach to his recovery by benching him.
However, Mbappe did participate in a behind-closed-doors friendly against Paderborn’s Under-21s, reportedly scoring twice and providing two assists.
His return will be a welcome boost for the team, but it poses a selection dilemma for Deschamps, who may have to choose between Adrien Rabiot and Aurelien Tchouameni to accommodate Mbappe in the lineup.
Rabiot has been a favorite in recent tournaments and could start in a deeper midfield role alongside Kante.
On the other hand, Poland is concerned about center-back Bartosz Salamon’s ankle injury, which kept him out of the match against Austria. Robert Lewandowski is expected to return to the starting lineup for what could be his final game at a major international tournament.
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